The global energy crisis has escalated, and rubber prices have fallen steadily. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has pushed up the prices of global energy, food, fertilizers and other commodities, and brought many changes to the world. We have conducted an in-depth analysis of the trend of raw materials for tires under the global energy crisis. Natural rubber and synthetic rubber account for nearly 50% of tire raw materials. Natural rubber is a long-term agricultural product, which is not highly correlated with international energy prices. Recently, as the tire industry is under pressure and the production capacity of small enterprises is cleared, the price of natural rubber has entered a downward channel with the trend of the decline in the operating rate of all-steel tires and semi-steel tires, which runs counter to the oil and gas market. On April 20, the standard rubber SCRWF was reported at 12,832 yuan / ton, a year-on-year decrease of 1.78% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.5%. Although synthetic rubber is a petrochemical product, it is less affected by the price of oil and gas, and the price is also falling recently. From December to April 26, 2021, under the background of a new wave of oil and gas prices, the price of cis-butadiene rubber closed at 13,975 yuan/ton, down 12.66% from December and down 14.31% year-on-year; the price of styrene-butadiene rubber closed at 12,013 yuan / ton, down 8.21% from December, down 12.83% year-on-year.
The crisis in Russia and Ukraine caused a shortage of carbon black, and the European tire industry suffered a blow. Europe is heavily dependent on the production of carbon black in the three countries of Russia, Bird and White. Of the carbon black imported by the EU in 2020, 447,700 tons came from Russia, 52,300 tons from Ukraine, and 3,900 tons from Belarus. 84.63% of carbon black imports in Europe depend on Russia, Belarus and Birdland. Under the double blow of sanctions and war, the supply of carbon black in these three countries has been almost cut off, and the European carbon black market is facing serious supply problems. The European tire industry has been affected by the war, and even plans to cut production. Michelin stated at a press conference in early March that because of the rise in carbon black and crude oil prices, it will begin to implement the production reduction plan in Europe within two weeks, and due to overcapacity of heavy-duty tires, Michelin has announced the layoff of more than 700 heavy-duty vehicles. tire department. In addition, with the development and production of green tires, silica is accelerating the replacement of carbon black. Under the background of rising prices of traditional carbon black and increasing demand for green tires, the substitution effect of silica on traditional carbon black will be more obvious.